Client: Pāmu Farms of New Zealand
Pāmu is a State Owned Enterprise and the largest pastoral farmer in Aotearoa New Zealand managing nearly 360,000 hectares across more than 100 farms including the Wairākei Estate dairy complex between Rotorua and Taupō and the largest station in New Zealand, Molesworth, which is on land leased from the Department of Conservation.
Like many farmers Pāmu operations are exposed to physical climate risks due to the direct reliance of agricultural production on climate systems. Extreme weather events can cause crop failures, death of livestock or significant reductions in yield. Increased severity and frequency of extreme weather events may result in financial losses at the farm level.
In 2023 Pāmu commissioned data science experts Lynker Analytics and New Zealand experts in extreme weather and climate change, Professor David Frame (University of Canterbury) and Dr Luke Harrington (University of Waikato), to help understand vulnerabilities to climate risks such as drought, heavy rainfall and extreme heat across their farms.
Photo: Kaeli Lalor
Our team used a Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) method to identify the direct and indirect effects of climate change, as well as non-climate stressors. This method is used internationally to assess community, asset and species vulnerability to climate risk which arises as a result of the confluence of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability.
A climate hazard becomes a climate risk when inhabitants and/or assets are exposed to the particular hazard and if those exposed inhabitants or assets are vulnerable to it. A farm or business can improve its resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related shocks and stresses by implementing climate adaptation actions. However, it is necessary to develop a sound understanding of context-specific climate risks before developing such actions.
This research highlighted the likely land use, production and performance impacts on each farm under climate change using a +1.8°C by 2050 scenario. The study involved the characterisation, diagnosis and projection of risks or impacts of environmental change on farms, systems, land use and infrastructure.
A matrix of risk for each farm along with a technical report outlining data inputs, scientific method, risk analysis and summary data was part of the delivery, and farm data and planning advice was provided to Pāmu for internal use or ongoing modelling and adaptive planning. Pāmu staff supported the study with the provision of data and discussion groups.
An example summary sheet shared within the 2023 Pāmu Climate-Related Disclosure is shown below.
Example Pāmu Farm Risk Assessment
This work was delivered by Lynker Analytics at the end of 2023 and over the course of 2024 Pāmu has used this research to form a Pāmu adaption plan. This year the Lynker team has been supporting the sustainability team at Pāmu to present and explain this research at regional workshops.
Pamu Climate risk adaptation presentation on farm. Source. Sam Bridgman
Pāmu Head of Sustainability, Sam Bridgman explains “this study has helped Pāmu identify which farms have greater risks and opportunities from climate change in the near and medium term. It has allowed us to prioritise our adaptation actions. ”
As a result of this work the most vulnerable farms have become the initial focus of adaptation planning with the climate risk reports providing an important step forward in farm-by-farm resilience planning.
For more information on how Pāmu is preparing for a changing climate please see the 2023 Pāmu Climate-related Disclosure.